Ten ' shocking ' predictions - an annual attempt to identify rare, but have great power to influence events that are beyond the scope of normal market expectations.
The new annual report of the Danish experts talking about the future, the future U.S. Federal Reserve and the quantitative easing program, the purchase of Apple's social network Facebook, as well as new records of the world's stock markets. This says RBC.
Shocking prediction for next year are as follows:.
U.S. Congress to block the third round of quantitative easing.
According to experts of the bank, in the second half of 2011. The Federal Reserve has to appear in court on charges of collapse of the housing market and the subsequent increase in the level of debt and bankruptcy of banks.
Apple will buy Facebook.
Negotiations picked Apple's CEO Steve Jobs with Facebook on cooperation may push the head of Apple to buy social network as a whole, analysts predict the Danish.
The dollar index will reach 100 points.
In 2011, the trajectory of economic growth in most countries of the world will seem friendly, but then there are problems in China. The attractiveness of the U.S. dollar will increase significantly. Its rate against a basket of major world currencies, will grow in the third quarter of next year by 25% and will rise above the mark of 100 points. Now the dollar is at around 86 points.
The yield on the 30-year government bonds dropped to the U.S. 3%.
The policy of devaluation of the dollar, which began in 2010. , Forcing emerging markets to use free of state dollars to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. As a result, next year the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries dropped to 3%, believe in the bank. Currently this figure stands at 4.41%.
Australian dollar to the pound will fall by 25%.
In 2011, unexpectedly strong rebound start UK. Australia, by contrast, experienced a downturn in the economy, and the Australian property market is like a bubble ready to burst about. That is, all conditions for the depreciation of the Australian dollar against the pound by 25%, according to the bank.
The price of oil will soar, but then will play a one-third.
Oil is currently supported by fundamental macroeconomic expectations of investors, will continue to go up, and early in 2011 the cost will exceed $ 100 a barrel. However, in the second half of the year on the market of black gold to start a strong correction, which will reduce the price by one third. Now a barrel of oil on world markets account for about 88 dollars.
The price of natural gas will increase by 50%.
Danish Bank experts believe that the beginning of 2011 will be characterized by an excess of gas reserves. However, the increase in industrial demand, historical cheapness of gas relative to oil and coal and implementation of proposals to increase the export of gas resources in the U.S. - all this will lead to the fact that passive investments in natural gas will become more profitable. In addition, reserves are being depleted rapidly due to rapid cooling, so in 2011 the price could rise by 50 %, which occurs once every 25 years, believed in the bank.
The gold price will rise to 1800 dollars. / ounce.
In 2011, the currency of the war resumed with a vengeance against the backdrop of improving the American economy. U.S. trade deficit will increase pressure on China will become stronger, which encourages investment in metals, bank notes. Against this background, the gold price will rise in 2011 to 1800 dollars is. / ounce ( an ounce of gold now give the order of 1,400 dollars. ).
The S.
In 2011 the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to pump up the system with liquidity. Investors realize that the only strategy that should be followed - to buy on dips. This tactic, though it is a ' house of cards ', in fact, works for the Fed, because the American consumer starts to increase spending by looking at how to improve his stock portfolio. The main index of the U.S. - S.
Russia's RTS index will reach 2500 points.
In early 2011, will inflate the next global economic ' bubble ', which will trigger the growth of oil prices above $ 100. / bbl. The average U.S. investor will have no choice but to buy shares on the market downturns. As a result, in 2011 the RTS index will grow by almost two times - to the level of 2500 points (currently trading at around 1735.94 points).
Saxo Bank annually to the public on its ' shocking ' forecasts for next year. The bank is building projections, starting from the ' normal ' market expectations and views of the average investor. This methodology does not always work. For example, last year, according to the bank, the forecast came true only three out of 10.
Discuss.
Monday, April 23, 2012
TOP-10 shocking predictions on the following year
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